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Gimba Kakanda
@gimbakakanda
Niger: The Knife in Tchiani’s Hand
The leader of a country that has cornered itself and been sanctioned by the international community for toppling a democratically elected government may struggle to be seen as a credible voice of reason. For Niger’s coup leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, the road to political legitimacy or relevance seems to lie in attributing his government’s failings to external factors, with Nigeria appearing to serve as a convenient scapegoat.
General Tchiani knows the sociology of his people well enough to understand that a narrative featuring a Western power or figure as the enemy would resonate with the mass sentiment of a colonial space. The claim of collusion between Nigeria and France to sabotage Niger could only be believable if Nigeria stood to gain stability while Niger collapsed. No nation would celebrate the collapse of a neighbour in a volatile region, knowing it would be compelled to bear the burden of providing a buffer.
The suggestion that the French are establishing military bases in Nigeria is a claim that is relatively straightforward to verify. It is reasonable to expect that a state like Niger would possess the capacity to produce credible evidence of such developments if they exist. Rather than pursuing unsubstantiated claims, it would be more constructive for the military leadership to focus on re-establishing links with other regional powers to fight collective threats, while also creating opportunities for the people of Niger to elect representatives of their choice, as promised.
Soon, Niger’s military leaders will have to stare into the mirror and realise that they lack the capacity to function in isolation from the world. The ruling elite may survive only as long as they can draw oxygen from the people. The enemy Niger has right now is neither Nigeria nor any West African country, neither France nor any Western power.
Thankfully, ECOWAS has reopened the door for Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso to rejoin the regional bloc, setting a deadline of 29 January 2025. The knife is in Tchiani’s hand now to decide what to use it for—whether to cut a cake of reunion or sever ties with the alliance the people need.
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